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Overstay2 scoring model for Grace Hospital: Difference between revisions

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| Homeless || 0.8355 || 0.093  
| Homeless || 0.8355 || 0.093  
|-
|-
| PCH  || -3.6064 || <.0001  
| PCH  || -3.6008 || <.0001  
|-
|-
| OutsideWPG || 2.0009 || 0.0311
| FromNonWpgFacility || 1.7445 || 0.0612
|-
|-
| InterImplantDevice || 0.9103 || 0.0004  
| InterImplantDevice || 0.9099 || 0.0004  
|-
|-
| Opioids || -1.6117  || 0.0363 
| Dementia || 1.1677 || <.0001
|-
|-
| Dementia || 1.1715 || <.0001
| CHF || 0.2739  || 0.0263
|-
|-
| CHF || 0.2820  || 0.0223
| Plegia  || 0.2615 || 0.0547
|-
|-
| Plegia  || 0.2515 || 0.0649
| GCS_Motor || 0.4489 || 0.0131
|-
|-
| GCS_Motor || 0.4485 || 0.0133
| ADL_bath || 0.3868  || <.0001
|-
|-
| ADL_bath || 0.3843  || <.0001
| ADL_toilet  || 0.1596  || 0.0029
|-
|-
| ADL_toilet || 0.1612  || 0.0027
| ADL_continence || 0.1565  || <.0001
|-
|-
| ADL_continence  || 0.1567  || 0.0001
| ADL_Adlmean_age  || -0.00065 || 0.087
|-
| ADL_Adlmean_age  || -0.00064 || 0.01


|}
|}
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* OS = exp(Y) / (1 + exp(Y)
* OS = exp(Y) / (1 + exp(Y)


* Homeless, PCH, OutsideWPG, InterImplantDevice, Opioids, Dementia, are binary categorical variables (present/yes=1, absent/no =0) .
* Homeless, PCH, FromNonWpgFacility, InterImplantDevice, Opioids, Dementia, are binary categorical variables (present/yes=1, absent/no =0) .
* CHF, Plegia, GCS_Motor, ADL_bath, ADL_toilet, ADl_continence are points or scores.  
* CHF, Plegia, GCS_Motor, ADL_bath, ADL_toilet, ADl_continence are points or scores.  


The model gave a 0.077 cut-off probability for OS. "A cut-off point of 0.077, or a predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) of 7.7%, maybe be used to classify patients into two groups; Overstay >= 10 days and Overstay < 10 days. See more discussion on [[Overstay2 colour]].
The model gave a 0.076 cut-off probability for OS . "A cut-off point of 0.076, or a predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) of 7.6%, maybe be used to classify patients into two groups; Overstay >= 10 days and Overstay < 10 days. See more discussion on [[Overstay2 colour]].


The model has been validated using the data from the validation set. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 9.3015 (prob=0.327)  and the cut-off probability for OS = 0.08.
The model has been validated using the data from the validation set. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 9.3015 (prob=0.327)  and the cut-off probability for OS = 0.08.


The model was again validated using the data from Jan to June 17, 2025. The AUC C-index = 0.781, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 15.315 (prob=0.0545)  and the cut-off probability for OS = 0.089.


== Model files ==
== Model files ==
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== Log ==
== Log ==
* 2025-06-18 - the May 20, 2025 model has been validated using recent data from Jan 1 to June 17, 2025.
 
* 2025-05-20 - the Feb 21, 2025 model has been revisited and refitted deleting the factor Age*Age. Found a model from the training data set and also  validated using a different data set of the same period Oct 2020 to Dec 2024.
* 2025-05-20 - the Feb 21, 2025 model has been revisited and refitted deleting the factor Age*Age. Found a model from the training data set and also  validated using a different data set of the same period Oct 2020 to Dec 2024.
* 2025-02-21 - [https://q.tenbergen.ca/index.php?title=2025-02-21_JM_DR_Overstay_model_decision_and_cut-off 2025-02-21 JM DR Overstay model decision and cut-off] - We will use Model 8 at cut-off of 0.069
* 2025-02-21 - [https://q.tenbergen.ca/index.php?title=2025-02-21_JM_DR_Overstay_model_decision_and_cut-off 2025-02-21 JM DR Overstay model decision and cut-off] - We will use Model 8 at cut-off of 0.069
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