Overstay2 scoring model for Grace Hospital: Difference between revisions
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* CHF, Plegia, GCS_Motor, ADL_bath, ADL_toilet, ADl_continence are points or scores. | * CHF, Plegia, GCS_Motor, ADL_bath, ADL_toilet, ADl_continence are points or scores. | ||
The model gave a 0.076 optimum cut-off probability for OS with sensitivity = 74.2%, the rate of identifying OS GE 10d out of the patients who actually have OS GE 10d and with specificity = 74.3%, the rate of identifying OS LT 10d out of the patients who actually have OS LT 10d. This cut-off point of 0.076 will result to 24.1% rate of identifying OS GE 10d out of the patients who actually have OS LT 10d. Increasing the cut off predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) to 0.094 resulted to sensitivity = 67.2%, thus reducing the rate of identifying OS GE 10d out of the patients who actually have OS LT 10d to 19.7%. Thus a predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) of | The model gave a 0.076 optimum cut-off probability for OS GE 10 Days with sensitivity = 74.2%, the rate of identifying OS GE 10d out of the patients who actually have OS GE 10d and with specificity = 74.3%, the rate of identifying OS LT 10d out of the patients who actually have OS LT 10d. This cut-off point of 0.076 will result to 24.1% rate of identifying '''OS GE 10d''' out of the patients who actually have '''OS LT 10d'''. Increasing the cut off predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) to 0.094 resulted to sensitivity = 67.2%, thus reducing the rate of identifying '''OS GE 10d''' out of the patients who actually have '''OS LT 10d''' to 19.7%. Thus '''a predicted probability of (Overstay >= 10 days) of 0.094''' is going to be used to classify patients into two groups; Overstay >= 10 days and Overstay < 10 days. See more discussion on [[Overstay2 colour]]. | ||
The model has been validated using the data from the validation set. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 8.4318 (prob=0.4002) and the optimum cut-off probability for OS = 0.079 with sensitivity = 74.4% and specificity = 74.5%. | The model has been validated using the data from the validation set. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 8.4318 (prob=0.4002) and the optimum cut-off probability for OS = 0.079 with sensitivity = 74.4% and specificity = 74.5%. | ||
== Model files == | == Model files == | ||