Overstay2 scoring model for Grace Hospital: Difference between revisions
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*The model has been validated using the data from the validation set of same period. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 8.4318 (prob=0.4002) and the optimum cut-off probability for OS = 0.079 with sensitivity = 74.4% and specificity = 74.5%. | *The model has been validated using the data from the validation set of same period. The AUC C-index = 0.815, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 8.4318 (prob=0.4002) and the optimum cut-off probability for OS = 0.079 with sensitivity = 74.4% and specificity = 74.5%. | ||
*The model was again validated using the data from Jan to June 17, 2025. The AUC C-index = 0.784, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 13.7139 (prob=0. | *The model was again validated using the data from Jan to June 17, 2025. The AUC C-index = 0.784, the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of fit test Chi-Square value = 13.7139 (prob=0.0918) and the cut-off probability for OS = 0.088 with sensitivity = 73.6% and specificity = 74.3%. | ||
== Model files == | == Model files == | ||
* files describing the model and records of discussion about it are at {{S:\MED\CCMED|Julie\MedProjects\Overstay_Project_2025\BySite_TrainingValidation\GRA\ | * files describing the model and records of discussion about it are at {{S:\MED\CCMED|Julie\MedProjects\Overstay_Project_2025\BySite_TrainingValidation\GRA\GGH_FinalModel_27June2025}} | ||
== Log == | == Log == | ||
* 2025-06-25 - The definition of Ipioids factor has been revisited and broken done between Chronic Addiction and Acute/Overdose Intoxicity. The new fitted model did not show significant estimates | * 2025-06-25 - The definition of Ipioids factor has been revisited and broken done between Chronic Addiction and Acute/Overdose Intoxicity. The new fitted model from the training data set did not show significant estimates on these factors. The new model is similar to the May 20, 2025 model but without the factor Chronic Addiction and validated in the two data sets of Oct 2020 to Dec 2024 and Jan -June 2025 periods. | ||
* 2025-06-18 - the May 20, 2025 model has been validated using recent data from Jan 1 to June 17, 2025. | * 2025-06-18 - the May 20, 2025 model has been validated using recent data from Jan 1 to June 17, 2025. | ||
* 2025-05-20 - the Feb 21, 2025 model has been revisited and refitted deleting the factor Age*Age. Found a model from the training data set and also validated using a different data set of the same period Oct 2020 to Dec 2024. | * 2025-05-20 - the Feb 21, 2025 model has been revisited and refitted deleting the factor Age*Age. Found a model from the training data set and also validated using a different data set of the same period Oct 2020 to Dec 2024. | ||