Overstay2 colour: Difference between revisions

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* A 2 x 2 classification table for incrementing probability levels from 0.001 to 0.200 helps visualize the performance of the predicted results with actual outcomes.

* Sensitivity (true positive rate) is the proportion of actual positives correctly identified by the predicted results. High sensitivity means few false negatives.

* Specificity (true negative rate) is the proportion of actual negatives correctly identified by the predicted results. High specificity means few false positives.

* Positive Predicted Value (PPV) is the likelihood that a positive result is a true positive.

* Negative Predicted Value (NPV) is the likelihood that a negative result is a true negative.

* False Positive (FP) Rate is the proportion of actual negatives but predicted incorrectly as positives.

* False Negative (FN) Rate is the proportion of actual positives but predicted incorrectly as negatives.

* Optimal threshold is the probability level which shows equal or close to equal sensitivity or specificity in the testing data set. This threshold (also called cut-off) is being used to classify patients.

* The optimal threshold by site is below:

{| class="wikitable notsortable"

!Site !! Data Set!! Optimal Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV

!Site !! Data Set!! Optimal Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV || FP Rate || FN Rate

|-

| GGH || Training|| 0.~~077~~|| 73.60 || 74.50 || 16.1 || 97.7

| GGH || Training|| 0.076|| 74.2 || 74.3 || 16.1 || 97.7 || 25.7 || 25.8

|-

| GGH || Validation|| 0.~~080~~|| 74.66 || 74.69 || 16.8 || 97.7

| GGH || Validation|| 0.079|| 74.4 || 74.5 || 16.4 || 97.7 || 25.5 || 25.6

|-

| HSC || Training|| || || || ||

| HSC || Training|| || || || || || ||

|-

| HSC || Validation|| || || || ||

| HSC || Validation|| || || || || || ||

|-

| STB || Training|| || || || ||

| STB || Training|| || || || || || ||

|-

| STB || Validation|| || || || ||

| STB || Validation|| || || || || ||

|-

|}

~~This would have resulted in a assigning~~

There was a concern that this would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] so we considered a [[#pragmatic threshold]].

~~'''''xxx% '''''~~

~~of patients~~ a ~~"red". This~~ would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] so we ~~needed to determine~~ a [[#pragmatic threshold]].

=== Pragmatic threshold ===

We considered whether we should ~~lower~~ the threshold from the ~~optimal level~~ to reduce the number of patients who are assigned as red, ~~but decided~~ to ~~address this by~~ modifying the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] ~~instead~~.

We considered whether we should change the threshold from the [[#Optimal threshold]] to reduce the number of patients who are assigned as red, in addition to modifying the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] .

{| class="wikitable notsortable"

!Site !! Data Set!! Pragmatic Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV || FP Rate || FN Rate

|-

| GGH || Training|| 0.094|| 67.2 || 79.0 || 17.5 || 97.3 || 21.0|| 32.8

|-

| HSC || Training|| || || || || || ||

|-

| STB || Training|| || || || || || ||

|-

|}

{{collapsable | always = I think this can go, just leaving it until confirmed | full=

@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 * A  2 x 2 classification  table for incrementing probability levels from 0.001 to 0.200 helps visualize the performance of the predicted results with actual outcomes.
 * Sensitivity (true positive rate)  is the proportion of actual positives correctly identified by the predicted results. High sensitivity means few false negatives.
 * Specificity (true negative rate) is the proportion of actual negatives correctly identified by the predicted results.  High specificity means few false positives.
+* Positive Predicted Value (PPV) is the likelihood that a positive result is a true positive.
+* Negative Predicted Value (NPV) is the likelihood that a negative result is a true negative.
+* False Positive (FP) Rate is the proportion of actual  negatives but predicted incorrectly as positives.
+* False Negative (FN) Rate is the proportion of actual  positives but predicted incorrectly as negatives.
 * Optimal threshold is the probability level which shows equal or close to equal  sensitivity or specificity in the testing data set.  This threshold (also called cut-off) is being used to classify patients.
 * The optimal threshold by site is below:
 {| class="wikitable notsortable"
-  !Site !! Data Set!! Optimal Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV
+  !Site !! Data Set!! Optimal Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV || FP Rate || FN Rate
 |-
-| GGH  || Training|| 0.077|| 73.60 || 74.50 || 16.1 || 97.7
+| GGH  || Training|| 0.076|| 74.2 || 74.3 || 16.1 || 97.7 || 25.7 || 25.8
 |-
-| GGH  || Validation|| 0.080|| 74.66 || 74.69 || 16.8 || 97.7
+| GGH  || Validation|| 0.079|| 74.4 || 74.5 || 16.4 || 97.7 || 25.5 || 25.6
 |-
-| HSC  || Training|| ||   ||  || ||
+| HSC  || Training|| ||   ||  || || || ||
 |-
-| HSC  || Validation||  ||  ||  || ||
+| HSC  || Validation||  ||  ||  || || || ||
 |-
-| STB  || Training|| ||   ||  || ||
+| STB  || Training|| ||   ||  || || || ||
 |-
-| STB  || Validation||  ||  ||  || ||
+| STB  || Validation||  ||  ||  || || ||
 |-
 |}
-This would have resulted in a assigning
+There was a concern that this would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] so we considered a [[#pragmatic threshold]].
-'''''xxx% '''''
-of patients a "red". This would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] so we needed to determine a [[#pragmatic threshold]].
 === Pragmatic threshold ===
-We considered whether we should lower the threshold from the optimal level to reduce the number of patients who are assigned as red, but decided to address this by modifying the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] instead.
+We considered whether we should change the threshold from the [[#Optimal threshold]] to reduce the number of patients who are assigned as red,  in addition to modifying the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]] .
+{| class="wikitable notsortable"
+!Site !! Data Set!! Pragmatic Cut-off !! Sensitivity !! Specificity || PPV || NPV || FP Rate || FN Rate
+|-
+| GGH  || Training|| 0.094|| 67.2 || 79.0 || 17.5 || 97.3 || 21.0|| 32.8
+|-
+| HSC  || Training|| ||   ||  || || || ||
+|-
+| STB  || Training|| ||   ||  || || || ||
+|-
+|}
 {{collapsable | always = I think this can go, just leaving it until confirmed | full=