ALERT Scale Calculation

ALERT Scale Calculation (go to ALERT Scale App)

Binary logistic regression resulted in the following outcome model:

• LN(R/1-R) = Y

Y =

• -3.8390 + (0.1570 x male gender)
• +(0.0712 x Charlson Comorbidity Index)
• +(0.0532 x Total ADL Score
• -(0.1720 x Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS))
• +(0.0678 x Age in years)
• -(0.0004 x (age x age)
• +(0.0175 x heart rate in beats per min )
• +(0.0631 x respiratory rate in breaths per min )
• +(0.0289 x white blood cell count per microlitre x 0.001 )
• -(0.0410 x systolic blood pressure in Mm Hg )
• +(0.000121 x (systolic blood pressure x systolic blood pressure)

Where R is the risk of bad outcome and the categorical variable gender, is coded female=0 and male=1.

How to calculate R:

• R=exp(Y)/1 + exp(Y)

• Heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), White Blood cell Count (WBC), systolic Blood Pressure (sBP, AP Sys BP Field) - are continuous data

The cut-off probability for R is 0.088 . "A cut-off point of 0.088, or a predicted probability of adverse outcome of 8.8%, was used to classify patients into two groups; high-risk and low-risk of adverse outcome." (from publication)

Implementation

This is implemented by the Function MOST_Score in Centralized data front end.accdb.