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| === Decision on a probability threshold === | | === Decision on a probability threshold === |
| The overstay score generated by [[Overstay2 scoring model]] is used to assign an [[Overstay2 colour]] based on a threshold value, which affects the patient care team activities of the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]]. This section explains how we decided on that threshold value. | | The predictive models we established are used to stratify the patient population for different [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]]. Details about establishing a threshold for the probabilities of the [[Overstay2 scoring models]] are in [[Overstay2 colour]]. |
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| ==== Optimal threshold ====
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| {{Discuss|
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| * What was the consideration for the initial choice of, I think, 0.051? }}
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| ==== Pragmatic threshold ====
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| The drives a process that requires additional work form the patient care team. There are limits to those resources. The [[#optimal threshold]] would have resulted in a assigning
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| xxx%
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| of patients an [[Overstay2 colour]] of "red". This would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]].
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| {{Discuss|
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| * initial thoughts were "15-17% being red, with an aim to get 60-75% of overstay patients" }}
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| It was determined that a xxx-yyy% of "red" would be the maximum we could assign, at least during the [[Overstay2 timeline | initial phase]] of the project. To achieve this, we chose a threshold of '''0.069'''
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| For the selected [[Overstay2 scoring model]] this led to the following predicted values
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| * [[Overstay2 colour]] = "red": xxxx%
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| {{DJ |
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| Do you have numbers for something like false positives/ false negatives/ positive predictive value/ etc? Will rely on you to make this something that would satisfy someone questioning this from a statistical angle. [[User:Ttenbergen|Ttenbergen]] 15:19, 23 February 2025 (CST)
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| {{DJ |
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| * Does this page miss anything that is not addressed elsewhere as per pages either linked from here or from [[Overstay2 Overview]]? If not feel free to delete this question. [[User:Ttenbergen|Ttenbergen]] 15:19, 23 February 2025 (CST)
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| == Related articles == | | == Related articles == |