Re-analysis and generation of Overstay2 model: Difference between revisions

Decision on a probability threshold: removed old details that now live in Overstay2 colour.
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=== Decision on a probability threshold ===
=== Decision on a probability threshold ===
The overstay score generated by [[Overstay2 scoring model]] is used to assign an [[Overstay2 colour]] based on a threshold value, which affects the patient care team activities of the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]]. This section explains how we decided on that threshold value.
The predictive models we established are used to stratify the patient population for different [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]]. Details about establishing a threshold for the probabilities of the [[Overstay2 scoring models]] are in [[Overstay2 colour]].
 
==== Optimal threshold ====
{{Discuss|
* What was the consideration for the initial choice of, I think, 0.051? }}
 
==== Pragmatic threshold ====
The  drives a process that requires additional work form the patient care team. There are limits to those resources. The [[#optimal threshold]] would have resulted in a assigning
xxx%
of patients an [[Overstay2 colour]] of "red". This would have overwhelmed the [[Overstay2 processes on the units to reduce discharge delay]].
 
{{Discuss|
* initial thoughts were "15-17% being red, with an aim to get 60-75% of overstay patients"  }}
 
It was determined that a xxx-yyy% of "red" would be the maximum we could assign, at least during the [[Overstay2 timeline | initial phase]] of the project. To achieve this, we chose a threshold of '''0.069'''
 
For the selected [[Overstay2 scoring model]] this led to the following predicted values
* [[Overstay2 colour]] = "red": xxxx%
{{DJ |
Do you have numbers for something like false positives/ false negatives/ positive predictive value/ etc? Will rely on you to make this something that would satisfy someone questioning this from a statistical angle. [[User:Ttenbergen|Ttenbergen]] 15:19, 23 February 2025 (CST)
}}
 
{{DJ |
* Does this page miss anything that is not addressed elsewhere as per pages either linked from here or from [[Overstay2 Overview]]? If not feel free to delete this question. [[User:Ttenbergen|Ttenbergen]] 15:19, 23 February 2025 (CST)
}}


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